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Saturday, 9 April 2016

Aintree April 9th Grand National

THE GRAND NATIONAL APRIL 9th 2016
For the last four years I’ve miraculously managed to select the tri-cast it will be a fete if I can achieve that for a 5th year running, it’s a tough one this year with more unknowns and question marks than usual (in my opinion ) there’s also stables that should be firing but as of yet are not!
I’ll provide as always my opinion for each of the runners in the race, and select my best 5 or 6 or potentially 4 will know for certain after going through the runners, you don’t have to choose my shortlist selections you might see something in one of my write ups for a horse that draws you to back it.
If I don’t manage the tri cast I hope to at least get the winner good luck and most of all let’s hope all the horses and jockeys get home safely.
1, Many Clouds last year’s winner who impressed me so much with his performance that same day I backed him to win again this year at 40/1 ……Now to bear in mind this race takes a lot out of a horse so much so they rarely win another race let alone win the National again, so far he’s won again and won well we know he has the stamina the weight won’t be a problem neither will the ground! The interesting thing to note is he also has an entry on the 16th for the Scottish National however much I would love to see him win again I’ve a feeling his races so far and this one are prep races for the Scottish National, chances he deserves every chance to be in the top 5.
2, Silviniaco Conti Is a class horse my opinion is he’s a 3 miler and nothing more his trainer will bang on and have you believe he has the stamina yet whenever he’s raced further than 3m1f he’s faded he might be classy but this is not a race for him even though he loves Aintree and has won or placed every time he’s ran here his stamina is a big question mark! Nicholls has 6 runners in the race others make more appeal.
3, First Lieutenant Course not a problem will have needed the run last time out when pulled up, finished 16th in this race last year and not getting any younger has placed off a mark of 159 Mouse has his horses in top form and getting some decent winners lately, still stamina is an issue here and one to be ignored in my opinion.
4, Wonderful Charm Not races since December 2015 runs well fresh having won and placed after a break, his last race 26f entered him a place in my notebook as he was staying on well when finishing 2nd, I’d give him a better chance of staying the trip then his stablemate Siviniaco Conti, two runs at the course finished 3rd on both runs was plugging on and kept on towards finish says he wants a further trip, only 8 so age against him on trends however could be an outsider to consider with firms paying 5 or 6 places at current odds of 50/1
5, Ballynagour second behind Conti in the Betfred last year, course, jockey and ground in favour however a big question mark over the trip not likely to be in the top finishers.
6, O’Faolains Boy 3 miler this trips to far raced once at course in 2014 finished 5th behind Holywell 25f weakened and tailed off, not in form given last 3 runs odds should be bigger can see him being PU in this.
7, Gilgamboa Tricky one this as Bolger has ran 3 here two have won and the other placed which gives a 100% strike rate, on the other hand the jockey has ridden in 5 Nationals and never even placed with a 0% strike rate so the jockey choice is a bit puzzling to say the least! Trainers in form having onthefringe win the other day, given the horses young age, and lack of experience also his form shows he prefers soft or heavy I’d say this is a test of the horses stamina, interesting! one to watch.
8, On His Own I love this horse and if I backed him it would be a case of a heart over head bet, he’s ran twice previously in this and fell on both occasions once at bechers brook and the following year at valentines, avoided being entered into races here for the last two years probably due to the falls however horses don’t forget and that absence could be due to a confidence issue round here, best performances on heavy ground hoping he gets round safe and ends up PU rather than Fall.
9, The Druids Nephew Stamina, ground, jockey all a big plus was going really well here last year when falling in the closing stages, the downside is that could put him off wanting to race here however if the fall here last year doesn’t bother him he could well be in the frame and one to consider, however a few point’s to consider those that finish in the top 6 very rarely finish in the places in the same race the following year. And those that finish way down the field one year can improve and be in the places the following year! (Puzzling huh)
10, Triolo D’Alene One of two runners for Nicky Pulled up last year and can see the same again this year one to avoid.
11, Rocky Creek Another for Nicholls (anyone would think he wants to win having six entries) finished 5th in 2014 it was a hard race which took a lot out of him he only managed to finish 17th in 2015, can’t see him being in the top finishers.
12, Sir Des Champs Very Classy horse has won on soft, heavy & Good. Won over 3m 1f he’s never been tried at further distance than that also never ridden at the course.  ?’s over stamina and course and not been up to scratch the last few races.
13, Hollywell Jonjo’s yards in fine form and he runs two in the race this one is in good form lately and loves the course and better ground if he stays he should be there or there abouts.
14, Shutthefrontdoor The second of Jonjo’s runners his last couple of runs have been a bit off (I think I heard something about an abscess on his hoof? Although I could be wrong) he was 5th in this last year tailing off when getting tired it’s that? Does he really have no stamina or will he improve? risky selection but hard to ignore his stables at the minute.
15, Soll 7th in 2013 and 9th 2015 another horse I like a lot and wish he had the stamina just can’t see it given previous performances over long distances.
16, Buywise Runs well after a break and placed at the course, always looks like he wants a longer trip when racing never showed tiredness or tailed off always plugging on and gutsy wouldn’t be surprised if he finished in the places jockey has a great strike rate round here.
17, Boston Bob Classy horse who has won here however on all form I can’t see him staying the trip.
18, Aachen Horse very hit and miss on form appears to have no stamina generally weakens and unknown at the course one to avoid.
19, Morning Assembly Lost 3rd closing stages at Cheltenham last month over 3m 1f I’d say he does not have the stamina to see this race out, also unraced at Aintree.
20, Double Ross Loves Cheltenham, Hates Aintree and won’t stay why is he even in this race?
21, Goonyella Won the midlands national last year on soft went on to get 2nd in the Scottish national on good ground a month later, gutsy and an all and out stayer can’t see the trip being a problem at all, has been campaigned for this jockey gets on well with the horse, the 2 races he’s had at Aintree form is not great which is a concern but on stamina has to be in the mix.
22, Ucello Conti Decent enough horse but too inexperienced for this it’s a big ask IMO all wins / places have been on soft or heavy, one for the future maybe,
23, Unioniste Class horse again but can’t see him staying the trip he will lead and burn himself out.
24, Le Reve There seems to be a lot of 8 year olds entered this year maybe the trainers are in competition and have something to prove by saying many clouds not the only 8 year old good enough to win? I really like this horse has placed 3rd over 29f good to soft unknown at the course and probably one to keep note of for the future.
25, Gallant Oscar A lot of ?’s over him too many to be confident enough to have him as a selection.
26, Onenightinvienna One of two 7 year olds in the race this the only reason I can see why he’s been entered is to suss out his stamina and jumping ability, I’d be amazed if he made it round.
27, The Last Samuri Another I like and classy but not for this race, it’s too big a test he will improve in time if he has the stamina to stay a mile further than he’s ever raced before.
28, Kruzhlinin Can be a messy jumper was 10th in this two years ago and not shown enough of an improvement to have him in selections.
29, Rule The World Wants soft or Heavy the muddier the better for this horse although has placed on good to soft and good, 2nd in the Irish grand national last year if he takes to the course could well be in the mix.
30, Just A Par Certainly has the ability if he can stay was 2nd behind Many Clouds in 2015 at Exeter 19f hvy going has ran well on most goings so ground should suit whatever the going, placed once out of 3 races here, the 2 of those races where was unplaced he was in the handicappers grip! Back down in the weights has placed off a mark of 147 one to consider.
31, Katenko No stamina always weakens in 3 mile races will have to have improved massively on anything show so far to be in contention.
32, Vics Canvas 2nd behind Just a Par over 29f at Sandown last April stamina should not be a problem, never placed off a mark higher than 142 so off 147 has some work to do to be involved others make more appeal.
33, Black Thunder Interesting Jockey booking who has a decent record around here and in this race, should stay out the trip but his jumping ability generally lets him down so one I will be leaving alone.
34, Ballycasey was BD in this last year can’t go wrong with Katie Walsh on his back trip a big? Needs to improve and what he’s shown so far to be competitive.
35, Hadrians Approach A trainer / Jockey combination made in heaven, stamina no issue an unlucky horse who always tends to run into trouble and tends to get out paced, I respect the horse massively and its interesting Nicky thinks enough of him to enter him, if he gets a clear run and sorts his jumping out could throw up a big priced surprise.
36, Vieux Lion Rouge The third Pipe horse and the second 7 year old in the race, unknown at the course didn’t stay over 31f at Cheltenham last month and can see this being too tough a task for an inexperienced youngster.
37, Pendra Weakened on run in over 25f last time out although does run well fresh based on what he’s shown so far can’t see him staying out the trip.
38, Saint Are This horse oozes class he’s a proper gutsy little thing who’s small size often see’s him get out of trouble and slip through the tightest of gaps, was 2nd here last year the ground, course distance will not be an issue like Many Clouds he’s shown decent form since that battle of a race winning the veterans with style back in February, will he be able to do another 4.2 mile I’d like to think so but could be a trip to far to reproduce last year’s second, fit enough and could sneak into a place.
39, Home Farm No course form and nothing he’s shown so far gives him a chance of being in the places one to avoid
40, The Romford Pele Another horse I admire jockey is 0 from 5 rides here which is a massive shame as given another jockey on his back he would have made it to my could have a chance selections given he was 3rd behind Thistlecrack back in January and is a horse that keeps on when others are tiring, jockey will have learnt a few things from his rides around here and could well put that to good use and sneak into the places.
So there you have it my thoughts on all the runners so who’s made it to my final selections… Buywise is one without a doubt
Wonderful Charm is definitely another
Just A Par gets into the shortlist
Now the hard part do I forgive Goonyella’s poor runs at the course and give him a chance on stamina over the extra trip! I think it would be too risky to leave him out of the tri cast line up given his stamina
Do I give Gilgamboa’s jockey’s 0% strike rate the benefit of the doubt and hope he’s learned a few lessons given the trainers 100% strike rate in this…… I’m going to leave him out of the tri cast line up but I would say there are firms paying 6 places and a few pound e/w could see a return for a place.
Saint Are makes it to the tri cast list and I’m tempted to put in Holywell given Jonjo’s yard being in top form out of his two runners Hollywell is the one who has the best form of the two.
Reverse Tri cast over the following 6
Buywise
Wonderful Charm
Just a Par
Saint Are
The Druids Nephew
Goonyella
Ok so what about Many Clouds you are all shouting I know!! I would love to see him in the mix but it’s a big BUT if he can do what RedRum did all those years ago, he’s classy enough yet given the stats I’m going to leave him out and back him on the 16th instead.  However if you really like him you don’t have to use my selections you can swap one of my 6 and slot him in.

Good Luck and bring it on.

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