THE GRAND NATIONAL APRIL 9th 2016
For the last
four years I’ve miraculously managed to select the tri-cast it will be a fete
if I can achieve that for a 5th year running, it’s a tough one this
year with more unknowns and question marks than usual (in my opinion ) there’s
also stables that should be firing but as of yet are not!
I’ll provide
as always my opinion for each of the runners in the race, and select my best 5
or 6 or potentially 4 will know for certain after going through the runners,
you don’t have to choose my shortlist selections you might see something in one
of my write ups for a horse that draws you to back it.
If I don’t
manage the tri cast I hope to at least get the winner good luck and most of all
let’s hope all the horses and jockeys get home safely.
1, Many Clouds last year’s winner who
impressed me so much with his performance that same day I backed him to win
again this year at 40/1 ……Now to bear in mind this race takes a lot out of a
horse so much so they rarely win another race let alone win the National again,
so far he’s won again and won well we know he has the stamina the weight won’t
be a problem neither will the ground! The interesting thing to note is he also
has an entry on the 16th for the Scottish National however much I
would love to see him win again I’ve a feeling his races so far and this one
are prep races for the Scottish National, chances he deserves every chance to
be in the top 5.
2, Silviniaco Conti Is a class horse my
opinion is he’s a 3 miler and nothing more his trainer will bang on and have
you believe he has the stamina yet whenever he’s raced further than 3m1f he’s
faded he might be classy but this is not a race for him even though he loves
Aintree and has won or placed every time he’s ran here his stamina is a big
question mark! Nicholls has 6 runners in the race others make more appeal.
3, First Lieutenant Course not a problem
will have needed the run last time out when pulled up, finished 16th
in this race last year and not getting any younger has placed off a mark of 159
Mouse has his horses in top form and getting some decent winners lately, still
stamina is an issue here and one to be ignored in my opinion.
4, Wonderful Charm Not races since
December 2015 runs well fresh having won and placed after a break, his last
race 26f entered him a place in my notebook as he was staying on well when
finishing 2nd, I’d give him a better chance of staying the trip then
his stablemate Siviniaco Conti, two runs at the course finished 3rd
on both runs was plugging on and kept on towards finish says he wants a further
trip, only 8 so age against him on trends however could be an outsider to
consider with firms paying 5 or 6 places at current odds of 50/1
5, Ballynagour second behind Conti in the
Betfred last year, course, jockey and ground in favour however a big question
mark over the trip not likely to be in the top finishers.
6, O’Faolains Boy 3 miler this trips to
far raced once at course in 2014 finished 5th behind Holywell 25f
weakened and tailed off, not in form given last 3 runs odds should be bigger
can see him being PU in this.
7, Gilgamboa Tricky one this as Bolger has
ran 3 here two have won and the other placed which gives a 100% strike rate, on
the other hand the jockey has ridden in 5 Nationals and never even placed with
a 0% strike rate so the jockey choice is a bit puzzling to say the least!
Trainers in form having onthefringe win the other day, given the horses young
age, and lack of experience also his form shows he prefers soft or heavy I’d
say this is a test of the horses stamina, interesting! one to watch.
8, On His Own I love this horse and if I
backed him it would be a case of a heart over head bet, he’s ran twice
previously in this and fell on both occasions once at bechers brook and the
following year at valentines, avoided being entered into races here for the
last two years probably due to the falls however horses don’t forget and that
absence could be due to a confidence issue round here, best performances on
heavy ground hoping he gets round safe and ends up PU rather than Fall.
9, The Druids Nephew Stamina, ground,
jockey all a big plus was going really well here last year when falling in the
closing stages, the downside is that could put him off wanting to race here
however if the fall here last year doesn’t bother him he could well be in the
frame and one to consider, however a few point’s to consider those that finish
in the top 6 very rarely finish in the places in the same race the following
year. And those that finish way down the field one year can improve and be in
the places the following year! (Puzzling huh)
10, Triolo D’Alene One of two runners for
Nicky Pulled up last year and can see the same again this year one to avoid.
11, Rocky Creek Another for Nicholls
(anyone would think he wants to win having six entries) finished 5th
in 2014 it was a hard race which took a lot out of him he only managed to
finish 17th in 2015, can’t see him being in the top finishers.
12, Sir Des Champs Very Classy horse has
won on soft, heavy & Good. Won over 3m 1f he’s never been tried at further distance
than that also never ridden at the course.
?’s over stamina and course and not been up to scratch the last few
races.
13, Hollywell Jonjo’s yards in fine form
and he runs two in the race this one is in good form lately and loves the
course and better ground if he stays he should be there or there abouts.
14, Shutthefrontdoor The second of Jonjo’s
runners his last couple of runs have been a bit off (I think I heard something
about an abscess on his hoof? Although I could be wrong) he was 5th
in this last year tailing off when getting tired it’s that? Does he really have
no stamina or will he improve? risky selection but hard to ignore his stables
at the minute.
15, Soll 7th in 2013 and 9th
2015 another horse I like a lot and wish he had the stamina just can’t see it
given previous performances over long distances.
16, Buywise Runs well after a break and
placed at the course, always looks like he wants a longer trip when racing
never showed tiredness or tailed off always plugging on and gutsy wouldn’t be
surprised if he finished in the places jockey has a great strike rate round
here.
17, Boston Bob Classy horse who has won
here however on all form I can’t see him staying the trip.
18, Aachen Horse very hit and miss on form
appears to have no stamina generally weakens and unknown at the course one to
avoid.
19, Morning Assembly Lost 3rd
closing stages at Cheltenham last month over 3m 1f I’d say he does not have the
stamina to see this race out, also unraced at Aintree.
20, Double Ross Loves Cheltenham, Hates
Aintree and won’t stay why is he even in this race?
21, Goonyella Won the midlands national
last year on soft went on to get 2nd in the Scottish national on
good ground a month later, gutsy and an all and out stayer can’t see the trip
being a problem at all, has been campaigned for this jockey gets on well with
the horse, the 2 races he’s had at Aintree form is not great which is a concern
but on stamina has to be in the mix.
22, Ucello Conti Decent enough horse but
too inexperienced for this it’s a big ask IMO all wins / places have been on
soft or heavy, one for the future maybe,
23, Unioniste Class horse again but can’t
see him staying the trip he will lead and burn himself out.
24, Le Reve There seems to be a lot of 8
year olds entered this year maybe the trainers are in competition and have
something to prove by saying many clouds not the only 8 year old good enough to
win? I really like this horse has placed 3rd over 29f good to soft
unknown at the course and probably one to keep note of for the future.
25, Gallant Oscar A lot of ?’s over him too
many to be confident enough to have him as a selection.
26, Onenightinvienna One of two 7 year olds
in the race this the only reason I can see why he’s been entered is to suss out
his stamina and jumping ability, I’d be amazed if he made it round.
27, The Last Samuri Another I like and
classy but not for this race, it’s too big a test he will improve in time if he
has the stamina to stay a mile further than he’s ever raced before.
28, Kruzhlinin Can be a messy jumper was 10th
in this two years ago and not shown enough of an improvement to have him in
selections.
29, Rule The World Wants soft or Heavy the
muddier the better for this horse although has placed on good to soft and good,
2nd in the Irish grand national last year if he takes to the course
could well be in the mix.
30, Just A Par Certainly has the ability if
he can stay was 2nd behind Many Clouds in 2015 at Exeter 19f hvy
going has ran well on most goings so ground should suit whatever the going,
placed once out of 3 races here, the 2 of those races where was unplaced he was
in the handicappers grip! Back down in the weights has placed off a mark of 147
one to consider.
31, Katenko No stamina always weakens in 3
mile races will have to have improved massively on anything show so far to be
in contention.
32, Vics Canvas 2nd behind Just
a Par over 29f at Sandown last April stamina should not be a problem, never
placed off a mark higher than 142 so off 147 has some work to do to be involved
others make more appeal.
33, Black Thunder Interesting Jockey
booking who has a decent record around here and in this race, should stay out
the trip but his jumping ability generally lets him down so one I will be
leaving alone.
34, Ballycasey was BD in this last year
can’t go wrong with Katie Walsh on his back trip a big? Needs to improve and
what he’s shown so far to be competitive.
35, Hadrians Approach A trainer / Jockey
combination made in heaven, stamina no issue an unlucky horse who always tends
to run into trouble and tends to get out paced, I respect the horse massively
and its interesting Nicky thinks enough of him to enter him, if he gets a clear
run and sorts his jumping out could throw up a big priced surprise.
36, Vieux Lion Rouge The third Pipe horse
and the second 7 year old in the race, unknown at the course didn’t stay over
31f at Cheltenham last month and can see this being too tough a task for an
inexperienced youngster.
37, Pendra Weakened on run in over 25f last
time out although does run well fresh based on what he’s shown so far can’t see
him staying out the trip.
38, Saint Are This horse oozes class he’s a
proper gutsy little thing who’s small size often see’s him get out of trouble
and slip through the tightest of gaps, was 2nd here last year the
ground, course distance will not be an issue like Many Clouds he’s shown decent
form since that battle of a race winning the veterans with style back in
February, will he be able to do another 4.2 mile I’d like to think so but could
be a trip to far to reproduce last year’s second, fit enough and could sneak
into a place.
39, Home Farm No course form and nothing
he’s shown so far gives him a chance of being in the places one to avoid
40, The Romford Pele Another horse I admire
jockey is 0 from 5 rides here which is a massive shame as given another jockey
on his back he would have made it to my could have a chance selections given he
was 3rd behind Thistlecrack back in January and is a horse that
keeps on when others are tiring, jockey will have learnt a few things from his
rides around here and could well put that to good use and sneak into the
places.
So there you
have it my thoughts on all the runners so who’s made it to my final selections…
Buywise is one without a doubt
Wonderful
Charm is definitely another
Just A Par
gets into the shortlist
Now the hard
part do I forgive Goonyella’s poor runs at the course and give him a chance on
stamina over the extra trip! I think it would be too risky to leave him out of
the tri cast line up given his stamina
Do I give
Gilgamboa’s jockey’s 0% strike rate the benefit of the doubt and hope he’s
learned a few lessons given the trainers 100% strike rate in this…… I’m going to
leave him out of the tri cast line up but I would say there are firms paying 6
places and a few pound e/w could see a return for a place.
Saint Are
makes it to the tri cast list and I’m tempted to put in Holywell given Jonjo’s
yard being in top form out of his two runners Hollywell is the one who has the
best form of the two.
Reverse Tri
cast over the following 6
Buywise
Wonderful
Charm
Just a Par
Saint Are
The Druids
Nephew
Goonyella
Ok so what
about Many Clouds you are all shouting I know!! I would love to see him in the
mix but it’s a big BUT if he can do what RedRum did all those years ago, he’s
classy enough yet given the stats I’m going to leave him out and back him on
the 16th instead. However if
you really like him you don’t have to use my selections you can swap one of my
6 and slot him in.
Good Luck
and bring it on.
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